The Wall Street powerhouse, Goldman Sachs, estimated a few years ago that AI could affect or expose roughly 300 million full-time jobs globally, and that estimate is still widely cited today. But the conversation has evolved significantly. The newer reports are focusing less on “all jobs disappearing overnight” and more on:
- which sectors are being disrupted first,
- how fast AI adoption is accelerating,
- and how many white-collar jobs may be reduced, frozen, or never replaced.
Here’s what the latest major reports and economists are now saying.
The Big Picture
According to recent Goldman Sachs research, AI could automate tasks representing about 25% of all work hours in the U.S. over time. Goldman continues to estimate that about 6%–7% of the U.S. workforce could eventually be displaced over roughly the next decade if adoption becomes widespread.
More recent Goldman analysis suggests AI is already beginning to affect payroll growth and entry-level hiring. Their economists estimated AI reduced U.S. payroll growth by approximately 16,000 jobs per month over the past year and slightly increased unemployment.
What Are Experts Saying About the Next 12 Months?
This is where estimates vary widely.
Most mainstream economists do not currently predict tens of millions of Americans losing jobs within the next year alone. Instead, they see:
- hiring slowdowns,
- elimination of entry-level positions,
- reduced replacement hiring,
- restructuring,
- and productivity gains, allowing companies to operate with fewer employees.
However, some executives and AI leaders are issuing much more aggressive warnings.
More Aggressive Warnings
Some AI executives are sounding far more alarmed.
A recent report citing Anthropic’s CEO warned that as many as half of entry-level white-collar jobs could disappear within 1–5 years, potentially pushing unemployment into double digits if the transition is unmanaged.
That is far beyond the current consensus view, but it reflects how rapidly AI capabilities are improving.
The Jobs Most at Risk
Recent reports consistently point to these categories as the most exposed:
- Administrative support
- Call center operations
- Data entry
- Junior programming
- Graphic design
- Basic copywriting
- Legal document review
- Research assistants
- Junior analysts
- Back-office financial work
Goldman noted that some office administration and legal functions could see over 40% of tasks automated or redistributed to AI systems.
Jobs Likely to Be More Resistant
Interestingly, many reports say the safest roles may be:
- skilled trades,
- face-to-face consultative sales,
- relationship-driven professions,
- healthcare support,
- repair services,
- field operations,
- and entrepreneurship.
That is one reason relationship-based industries — including commercial finance consulting, factoring brokerage, and business development — may actually become more valuable.
As online content becomes flooded with AI-generated material, trust and personal face-to-face relationships may become even more important.
What Is Likely to Happen Next
The next 12–24 months likely will not resemble a sudden Great Depression-style event.
Instead, we are probably entering a period of:
- slow white-collar contraction,
- reduced hiring,
- higher productivity expectations,
- and increasing pressure on generic office roles.
The bigger long-term change may be psychological:
many people are beginning to realize they may need:
many people are beginning to realize they may need:
- multiple income streams,
- new consulting skills,
- relationship-based selling abilities,
- entrepreneurial flexibility,
- and direct client relationships.
That shift is already driving growing interest in:
- home-based businesses,
- consulting,
- specialized finance,
- local networking,
- and service-based entrepreneurship.
And ironically, the more AI floods the internet with automated content, the more valuable authentic human relationships and consultative expertise may become. For factoring brokers and consultants, pivoting to consultative selling is how you will make AI work for you rather than against you. Structuring you business to focus on face to face selling will be one of the most important business decisions you will make in the coming months.