UBS Calls It at 93%: Getting Ready for the Coming Recession

UBS calls recession at 93% for 2025

Recently, UBS shook financial markets when it released a “hard data” model that places the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 93%.

While it’s tempting to dismiss such a high probability as alarmist, several other institutions are sounding the warning bell too. J.P. Morgan currently estimates around a 40% chance of recession by year-end, citing tariff pressures and weakening growth trends. JPMorgan Chase Goldman Sachs has increased its probability to 35%, and its economists are watching closely as upside catalysts fade. Meanwhile, private banks like Bank of America are hedging, noting that while consumer strength and employment look relatively resilient, cracks are forming beneath the surface.

What This Means for Your Broker Business

  1. Credit Crunch & Tightened Lending
  2. As recession risk rises, traditional banks and lending institutions tend to tighten credit standards. For many small and mid-sized businesses, that means fewer options for cash flow. Factoring becomes a more compelling solution precisely when conventional credit is drying up.
  3. Increased Demand for Working Capital
  4. Slower sales, longer customer payment cycles, and margin compression push more businesses into cash-gap stress. This is the environment where factoring brokers thrive: bridging gaps, solving liquidity problems, and earning residuals on the deals they facilitate.
  5. Higher Broker Leverage
  6. In stable times, factoring is valuable. In uncertain times, it’s indispensable. Brokers who are already established or building their networks will find their value proposition only strengthens. They don’t just offer financing — they offer lifelines to businesses slipping into tight cash flow.

What To Do Now: Build Relationships and Stay Visible

If there’s one lesson history teaches us, it’s that tough economies reward those who act early. As forecasts point toward higher recession risk, this is the moment for brokers to double down on what really drives their business — relationships and visibility.

Start by strengthening your connections with local bankers. These professionals are on the front lines when their clients face tightening credit, and they often look for trustworthy alternatives to help their borrowers. That means now is the time for face-to-face meetings — not just emails or calls. Connect with bankers on LinkedIn, follow up with a breakfast or lunch meeting, and make sure they understand how factoring can help their clients maintain cash flow when bank lending slows.

Next, reach out to your local SCORE mentors and small business support organizations. These community partners are invaluable sources of referrals and credibility. Schedule meetings, offer to speak about factoring at their workshops, and make yourself the “go-to” resource for business owners who need immediate working capital.

And finally, work around the clock to stay visible online. Add new, relevant content to your broker website blog every week. Post regularly on LinkedIn and social media to educate and engage. Share articles, insights, and local success stories. The more consistently you publish, the more authority and visibility you build — and that visibility translates directly into leads.

Don’t overlook your local community. Be active in your Chamber of Commerce and other local business organizations. Attend mixers, luncheons, and after-hours events. Relationships built in person often become the strongest referral sources later.

In short — now is not the time to pull back. It’s the time to engage, educate, and expand your presence. In challenging markets, factoring brokers who build relationships, stay visible, and provide consistent value will not only survive — they’ll grow.

Factoring: A Recession-Resilient Business

While no business is completely recession-proof, factoring is one of the most resilient commercial finance models. Because it hinges on real economic activity — i.e., businesses selling goods or services and issuing invoices — factoring tends to remain relevant even when broader GDP growth falters.

In fact, economic tough times often correlate with increased demand for short-term working capital solutions. When banks pull back or tighten terms, factoring brokers are among the first to be called. Residual commission streams accumulated from years of deals become even more valuable when new deal volumes spike.

For brokers who are already in motion, or those considering entering the space — this moment is not just a challenge, it may be the greatest opportunity of your career.